* The dollar and yen advanced as risk aversion increased on Thursday. The overbought stock and commodity markets fell as investors unwound some carry trades. The Conference Board US leading economic indicators index rose less than expected; still, indicating a robust economic recovery. US initial jobless claims remained unchanged from the prior week while continuing claims declined. Increasing demand for dollar liquidity sent 2- year yields to a yearly low. Dollar crosses and stock markets are at important technical levels and the resolutions of these technical levels will likely determine the directions of equities and currencies in the intermediate run. At important resistance, the S&P 500 dropped 14.90 to 1,094.90, pressured by a downgrade of semiconductor stocks. The EUR/USD, between resistance in the 1.50 area and support in the 1.48, fell to 1.4919. Sterling was pressured by lower-than-expected UK retail sales and worries about the UK banking sector. The Australian and Canadian dollars fell for a third consecutive day as commodity prices declined.
* The dollar index rose today, having been testing the 75-area for nearly a month. If this support is broken, the dollar index may fall to the 71-area support which is the low set last year. There are resistances at the 76 handle and in the 77-78 area. If these levels are broken, the technical outlook will improve.
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