วันอังคารที่ 3 พฤศจิกายน พ.ศ. 2552

Forex Trading Strategies 4/11/2009

FX Jumpy Ahead of Central Bank Meetings

* The dollar rose against most key currencies on Tuesday as investors worried about the health of the global banking sector and the sustainability of the equity rally. UBS, a huge Swiss bank, reported a wider-thanestimated loss. In the UK, Royal Bank of Scotland said it was taking more public funding, and Lloyds announced a rights issue. Meanwhile, US factory orders rose for a fifth month in six. The greenback pared earlier gains as the US stock market closed mixed. The S&P 500 was up 2.53 to 1,045.41. Investors are cautious ahead of three major central banks’ meetings. The Federal Reserve, Bank of England and European Central Bank are expected to keep their key interest rates unchanged; investors will look for signs of the central banks’ exit strategies. The yen declined modestly. Japan was closed for a holiday. Sterling recovered earlier losses and traded little changed in late afternoon trading. The Canadian dollar rose modestly as crude prices increased and gold prices hit a new all-time high. The Australian dollar declined modestly after the Reserve Bank of Australia raised its key rate 25 basis points to 3.50%, as expected, but downplayed further rate increases.

* The EUR/USD fell on Tuesday after the European Commission warned about further bank losses and that credit growth will be weak until banks repair their balance sheets. In addition, the EC sees slow economic growth in 2010-11. The EUR/USD tested the diagonal support from the long-run uptrend the last few days. If the 1.47 handle is broken, the pair will turn bearish. This is more likely to happen if the stock market correction continues. The S&P 500 is likely to test the support in the 980 area. Our long EUR/USD position was stopped out today with a small profit.



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